Mid Cap

$1 Billion to $10 Billion

ARTICLES

Purchase Recommendation - September 2018

This month's purchase recommendation is a company that has grown by acquisitions that have then not been integrated well. The shares have declined sharply in the past three years. With several new board members (including one backed by an activist) and new company leadership, the company is starting to unlock the substantial value trapped in its asset base and improve its operating margins. With the company’s high debt level, its shares are not without risk. However, the catalysts plus a favorable secular tailwind give the shares more than enough upside to offset the risks.
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This stock is in limbo, but there are two paths to significant gains for shareholders.

Purchase Recommendation - March 2018

While an investment in this mid-cap insurer carries significant, speculative risks, we believe that the upside potential justifies these risks. On the one hand, there is a determined buyer working toward completing a cash deal worth 90% more than the current share price. On the other hand, if the deal fails to pass regulatory muster, the company is currently valued at a remarkably low 11% of book value and 2x earnings, even as the underlying businesses appear to be improving.
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Chesapeake Energy 4Q17 Results: A Step Forward

After reporting 4Q17 results, Chesapeake shares surged 22% on significantly improved EBITDA, driven by higher energy prices and lower operating costs. The cost improvement is a critical and highly encouraging part of our thesis. Chesapeake's previously scrambled operations now appear more focused and streamlined. We expect more progress in 2018.
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Conduent 4Q17 Results--Making Clear Progress

In its first year as an independent company following its spin-off from Xerox, technology services firm Conduent (NYSE: CNDT) is making clear progress on improving its operating profitability and generating cash. Conduent is transitioning along the path that management outlined a year ago. We expect continued progress in 2018.
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Allscripts 4Q17: Progressing Along

The turnaround for electronic health records firm Allscripts (Nasdaq: MDRX) continues along under CEO Paul Black, but progress is a bit slower than we like, somewhat lumpy, and distorted by the company's complex revenue and profit accounting.
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Free Turnaround Letter Research Report: Bioverativ (NYSE: BIVV)

We're sharing this complimentary copy of our full Research Report for Bioverativ (NYSE: BIVV)—20+ pages of financial analysis, investment philosophy and straightforward explanation. BIVV, our most recent closed out purchase recommendation, brought Turnaround Letter readers 95% stock profit in seven short months.
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Weatherford's 4Q17 Results--Look Behind the Numbers

Fourth quarter 2017 results for drilling services company Weatherford (WFT) looked awful. Behind the numbers, however, there is a vast and credible turnaround effort underway that if successful could lift WFT shares substantially. Given the company's heavy debt burden, the turnaround has sizeable execution and energy price risks. We are retaining our Buy Recommendation and our $10/share price target.
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Free Report: Turnaround Investing Mistakes

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Turnaround Investing Blog

Amazon = US GDP 1970

Amazon joined Apple in reaching a $1 trillion market capitalization. $1 trillion is about the same as the total value of New York City property and the total value of loans at JP Morgan, the nation’s largest bank in terms of assets. Jeff Bezos’ $160 billion stake would place him (personally) as the #33 largest company in the S&P 500 in terms of market cap, next to Coca-Cola, Disney and Netflix. We aren’t bold enough to predict whether the shares will continue upwards or if they are in a bubble reaching maximum inflation. Setting aside for a moment their investment prospects, let’s admire the truly remarkable milestone that these two companies have reached. Read More.

EV/EBITDA: What Is It & Why Are We Using It More?

In reading recent editions of The Turnaround Letter, you have probably noticed that we are increasingly using EV/EBITDA as a valuation measure, rather than the better-known price/earnings multiple.  We thought it might be useful to describe this measure and why we like it.

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Turnaround Letter Stock Pick Named Top Performer of 2017

 

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What Last Year's Top Stock Pickers Are Buying in 2018

 

This Forbes write-up follows up on the recent Top Stock Tips report--naming The Turnaround Letter's Crocs recommendation the top performer of 2017: With 90% gains, CROX beat out 100 other investment ideas included in the report; and the stock continues to have value investing appeal, according to Putnam.

 

George notes, "We see additional upside for the stock in 2018 as management's efforts continue to bear fruit, though the gains will likely be more muted than we saw in 2017."