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Same Stock Market Advice Still Applies: Don't Try to Time the Market


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The Same Stock Market Advice Still Applies

We always urge investors not to try to time the market.  Instead, we recommend that investors put as much money into stocks as will still allow them to sleep at night, and to keep that allocation pretty constant.  We strongly believe that virtually no one can successfully time the market.  There is an old saying in the investment business: “You can always tell the market-timers--they’re the ones with the holes in their shoes.” 

Often we are giving this stock advice at times when the market seems scary, either because of a big drop or high volatility.  But it is equally important at times like the present when the market mood is euphoric.  There are two opposite temptations at times like this.  Some people will fret because they now feel that they have been under-invested in stocks and have missed much of the rally.  They suddenly decide to throw caution to the wind and pile fully into stocks before the market goes up further.  Other people look at the recent rise in stock prices, become convinced that a big bear market is right around the corner and decide to bail out of stocks.  Both temptations are dangerous to your financial health and should be strongly resisted.

Successful market timing requires two different sets of very challenging decisions...

Access the full subscriber-restricted of the March 2013 Turnaround Letter to read the full article.



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Boston Beer Company is the nation's largest craft beer company, with 2017 revenues of over $900 million. Since its days as a start-up in 1984, it has led the nation's growing taste for craft beers; and shareholders have enjoyed tasty returns along the way. So why is The Turnaround Letter--which focuses on out-of-favor companies undergoing major positive changes--even thinking about this ostensible "growth" company? 

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Harnessing Activists to Help Find Turnaround Stocks

Activist investors often produce attractive returns for their clients; and you can still use their influence to help your position as a turnaround investor in two ways: Buy a position in a stock with the expectation that an activist will soon follow or buy after an activist takes a stake.


Value Investing


While one of the many dozens of activist funds might find their way to selecting your particular stock, this approach is likely to be frustrating and unrewarding. A better approach is to buy after the activist makes their move. Once an activist takes a stake in a company, how do you evaluate whether it is worthwhile to follow on? Admittedly, this is a bit of an art... Learn how you can harness the power of activist investors to find market-beating turnaround stocks.

Turnaround Letter Stock Pick Named Top Performer of 2017


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What Last Year's Top Stock Pickers Are Buying in 2018


This Forbes write-up follows up on the recent Top Stock Tips report--naming The Turnaround Letter's Crocs recommendation the top performer of 2017: With 90% gains, CROX beat out 100 other investment ideas included in the report; and the stock continues to have value investing appeal, according to Putnam.


George notes, "We see additional upside for the stock in 2018 as management's efforts continue to bear fruit, though the gains will likely be more muted than we saw in 2017."