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Same Stock Market Advice Still Applies: Don't Try to Time the Market

 

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The Same Stock Market Advice Still Applies

We always urge investors not to try to time the market.  Instead, we recommend that investors put as much money into stocks as will still allow them to sleep at night, and to keep that allocation pretty constant.  We strongly believe that virtually no one can successfully time the market.  There is an old saying in the investment business: “You can always tell the market-timers--they’re the ones with the holes in their shoes.” 

Often we are giving this stock advice at times when the market seems scary, either because of a big drop or high volatility.  But it is equally important at times like the present when the market mood is euphoric.  There are two opposite temptations at times like this.  Some people will fret because they now feel that they have been under-invested in stocks and have missed much of the rally.  They suddenly decide to throw caution to the wind and pile fully into stocks before the market goes up further.  Other people look at the recent rise in stock prices, become convinced that a big bear market is right around the corner and decide to bail out of stocks.  Both temptations are dangerous to your financial health and should be strongly resisted.

Successful market timing requires two different sets of very challenging decisions...

Access the full subscriber-restricted of the March 2013 Turnaround Letter to read the full article.

 

 

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Books we Recommend for the Holidays

Looking for a stocking-stuffer for the investor or businessperson in your life, or perhaps for yourself? Don’t have a lot of time to stroll through a brick-n-mortar bookstore or wonder which books among Amazon’s endless inventory are actually worth buying? Our list, assembled by George Putnam and Bruce Kaser, includes some fascinating new titles as well as several timeless classics about successful investing and leadership. All are valuable reads which any recipient will be thrilled to dive into. Read More.

EV/EBITDA: What Is It & Why Are We Using It More?

In reading recent editions of The Turnaround Letter, you have probably noticed that we are increasingly using EV/EBITDA as a valuation measure, rather than the better-known price/earnings multiple.  We thought it might be useful to describe this measure and why we like it.

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Turnaround Letter Stock Pick Named Top Performer of 2017

 

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What Last Year's Top Stock Pickers Are Buying in 2018

 

This Forbes write-up follows up on the recent Top Stock Tips report--naming The Turnaround Letter's Crocs recommendation the top performer of 2017: With 90% gains, CROX beat out 100 other investment ideas included in the report; and the stock continues to have value investing appeal, according to Putnam.

 

George notes, "We see additional upside for the stock in 2018 as management's efforts continue to bear fruit, though the gains will likely be more muted than we saw in 2017."