Turnaround Investing Blog

George Putnam, one of the country's leading turnaround and distressed investing professionals, shares his timely insight on the economy and turnaround investing opportunities.

Mid Cap / Media

45% Gains on January Sale Recommendation: Time

In case you missed the last issue, our most recent sale recommendation--Time, Inc.--resulted in 45% stock profit for Turnaround Letter readers. We added this mid-cap print and digital media icon to our active portfolio in November 2016, when its stock price was approaching all-time lows. Despite its roster of highly-valuable brands, the company had struggled to adapt to a Web-based business model and its aggressive belt-tightening effort was offset by Time's spending on digital-based operations.

With the sting of Wall Street disdain battering its stock, we saw promising value investing opportunity here and felt its depreciated price failed to reflect Time's implementation of several important changes that indicated that a successful turnaround was in the works--including senior management changes.

We also liked that Time felt further pressure to improve its strategy, execution and capital allocation as a result of activist investor JANA Partners' 5% stake. Putnam told investors, "The new executive leadership combined with the presence of an activist shareholder provides a lot of encouragement that the company will soon begin to generate more value from its iconic brands."

In addition to these positive indicators, Time's financials at the time of the purchase recommendation remained solid, with strong cash flow, low debt levels and generous 5.8% dividend yield.

We provided several key purchase recommendation updates, beginning in April 2017 when Time’s board and management terminated discussions with a number of potential buyers, opting instead to pursue its strategic plan CEO Rich Battista. The following month, Time reported disappointing 1Q17 financials, and its stock fell 14% on the day. Despite the grim outlook, we continued to view other changes as positive and told Turnaround Letter readers, "The shares are essentially at the same price as our initial recommendation. Time’s outlook is more uncertain now, but clear positives remain…"

In November 2017, Time announced that it had agreed to sell to Meredith in an all-cash deal for $18.50/share, or $2.8 billion including the assumption of debt; and we moved the stock to hold status. The January 2018 Turnaround Letter advised readers to sell Time and lock in 45% gains: "As the proposed acquisition by Meredith draws closer, we see diminishing likelihood of a higher competing bid."

Time, Inc. is just one of countless examples reflecting how The Turnaround Letter continues to monitor and update all its recommended stocks--from purchase through sale recommendation--to further educate our readers and help maximize potential stock profit.

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Free Turnaround Letter Research Report: Bioverativ (NYSE: BIVV)

We're sharing this complimentary copy of our full Research Report for Bioverativ (NYSE: BIVV)—20+ pages of financial analysis, investment philosophy and straightforward explanation. BIVV, our most recent closed out purchase recommendation, brought Turnaround Letter readers 95% stock profit in seven short months. Read More.

Harnessing Activists to Help Find Turnaround Stocks

Activist investors often produce attractive returns for their clients; and you can still use their influence to help your position as a turnaround investor in two ways: Buy a position in a stock with the expectation that an activist will soon follow or buy after an activist takes a stake.


Value Investing


While one of the many dozens of activist funds might find their way to selecting your particular stock, this approach is likely to be frustrating and unrewarding. A better approach is to buy after the activist makes their move. Once an activist takes a stake in a company, how do you evaluate whether it is worthwhile to follow on? Admittedly, this is a bit of an art... Learn how you can harness the power of activist investors to find market-beating turnaround stocks.

Turnaround Letter Stock Pick Named Top Performer of 2017


stock market advicex


What Last Year's Top Stock Pickers Are Buying in 2018


This Forbes write-up follows up on the recent Top Stock Tips report--naming The Turnaround Letter's Crocs recommendation the top performer of 2017: With 90% gains, CROX beat out 100 other investment ideas included in the report; and the stock continues to have value investing appeal, according to Putnam.


George notes, "We see additional upside for the stock in 2018 as management's efforts continue to bear fruit, though the gains will likely be more muted than we saw in 2017."