Turnaround Investing Blog

George Putnam, one of the country's leading turnaround and distressed investing professionals, shares his timely insight on the economy and turnaround investing opportunities.


Volatility Up, Rates to Follow?

Excerpted from the October 2016 Issue

Our warning in last month’s issue that volatility was likely to increase proved to be very timely.  There were five days in September on which the S&P 500 moved by more than one percent (including one day when it dropped by nearly 2 ½%), after there was just one one-percent day in July and August combined.

Part of this volatility appears to have been caused by changing views on when the Fed will raise interest rates.  As we’ve said before, trying to bet on the Fed’s action is a loser’s game.  Your chances of getting it right are slim, and even if you guess right about when the Fed will raise rates, the market may react differently than you expect.  While everyone expects the stock market to drop in response to a rate hike, in the past the opposite has often happened.  Interest rate rises are usually in response to strength in the economy, which is generally good for stocks. 

The effect on bonds is much more clear-cut: when rates go up bond prices go down.  And the longer the term of a bond, the further it will fall.  Therefore our advice right now is to sit tight with your stocks and be very wary of bonds.

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Identify & Profit from Distressed Investing

Free Report: Distressed Investing

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Boston Beer--Time for Investors to Step Up to the Bar?

Boston Beer is the nation's largest craft beer company, with 2017 revenues of over $900 million. Since its days as a start-up in 1984, it has led the nation's growing taste for craft beers; and shareholders have enjoyed tasty returns along the way. So why is The Turnaround Letter--which focuses on out-of-favor companies undergoing major positive changes--even thinking about this ostensible "growth" company?  Read More.

Harnessing Activists to Help Find Turnaround Stocks

Activist investors often produce attractive returns for their clients; and you can still use their influence to help your position as a turnaround investor in two ways: Buy a position in a stock with the expectation that an activist will soon follow or buy after an activist takes a stake.


Value Investing


While one of the many dozens of activist funds might find their way to selecting your particular stock, this approach is likely to be frustrating and unrewarding. A better approach is to buy after the activist makes their move. Once an activist takes a stake in a company, how do you evaluate whether it is worthwhile to follow on? Admittedly, this is a bit of an art... Learn how you can harness the power of activist investors to find market-beating turnaround stocks.

Turnaround Letter Stock Pick Named Top Performer of 2017


stock market advicex


What Last Year's Top Stock Pickers Are Buying in 2018


This Forbes write-up follows up on the recent Top Stock Tips report--naming The Turnaround Letter's Crocs recommendation the top performer of 2017: With 90% gains, CROX beat out 100 other investment ideas included in the report; and the stock continues to have value investing appeal, according to Putnam.


George notes, "We see additional upside for the stock in 2018 as management's efforts continue to bear fruit, though the gains will likely be more muted than we saw in 2017."