Turnaround Investing Blog

George Putnam, one of the country's leading turnaround and distressed investing professionals, shares his timely insight on the economy and turnaround investing opportunities.

2016 Bankruptcy Review: More & Bigger

Excerpted from the January 2017 Issue
While we believe that overall bankruptcy activity will remain at a high level for the foreseeable future, we think that filings in the energy sector may have peaked. We are optimistic that the increasing bankruptcy activity will provide some very attractive opportunities for turnaround investors.
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How To Find Good Value Stocks When They Are Scarce

With U.S. stocks well into their eighth year of a bull market and the economy showing increasing signs of strength, finding ideal turnaround stocks--those with all three ingredients--can be a needle-in-the-haystack project at best. What is an investor to do in a seemingly barren value stock landscape?
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Looking Back at 2016 and Ahead to 2017: Stock Market Recap & Forecast

Excerpted from the January 2017 Issue
The market’s previous assumptions about the U.S. economy--sluggish growth, rising government regulation, near-zero interest rates--seem to have reversed overnight with the election of Donald Trump. We think the changes run deeper. Households and companies are starting to move past the financial crisis, which peaked eight years ago. Demand is picking up. With it, there is a good chance that the deflationary environment is shifting back toward inflation. Trump’s election could further boost growth through more government spending and fewer regulations. Risks to the markets may increase in 2017, and investors prepared for volatility can better hold firm when it arrives.
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Strategies for Investing in Distressed Securities

Adding a sizable debt burden on top of the profit uncertainty will further expand the range of possible outcomes; and this very wide range creates inefficient pricing, as investors can have very different views on what these bonds are actually worth. For the buyer of distressed bonds, this uncertainty and inefficiency are powerful sources of potentially high returns.
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What is Distressed Securities Investing?

Distressed investing usually involves greater risk than turnaround investing, but can also offer higher returns. Given the risk, most investors in distressed securities focus on bonds, which can provide greater downside protection.
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The Trump Effect

Excerpted from the December 2016 Issue
Investors have newfound enthusiasm for domestic economic growth, as a Trump presidency could bring new infrastructure spending, lighter regulatory burdens and lower corporate taxes. While the distance between campaign promises and corporate profits can be vast, we agree with the market’s general assessment of how government policies might change.
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Stocks Don't Know Who You Voted For: Thoughts About Clinton Vs. Trump & The Stock Market

Excerpted from the November 2016 Issue
A common temptation is to mix emotions with investing. Your candidate won, and so you are more optimistic--or your candidate lost, and now you’re more pessimistic. Stocks don’t know who you voted for. Avoiding emotionally-driven post-election buying and selling will be beneficial to your financial health.
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Identify & Profit from Distressed Investing

Free Report: Distressed Investing

Turnaround Investing Blog

Turnaround Investing Blog

Free Turnaround Letter Research Report: Bioverativ (NYSE: BIVV)

We're sharing this complimentary copy of our full Research Report for Bioverativ (NYSE: BIVV)—20+ pages of financial analysis, investment philosophy and straightforward explanation. BIVV, our most recent closed out purchase recommendation, brought Turnaround Letter readers 95% stock profit in seven short months. Read More.

Harnessing Activists to Help Find Turnaround Stocks

Activist investors often produce attractive returns for their clients; and you can still use their influence to help your position as a turnaround investor in two ways: Buy a position in a stock with the expectation that an activist will soon follow or buy after an activist takes a stake.

 

Value Investing

 

While one of the many dozens of activist funds might find their way to selecting your particular stock, this approach is likely to be frustrating and unrewarding. A better approach is to buy after the activist makes their move. Once an activist takes a stake in a company, how do you evaluate whether it is worthwhile to follow on? Admittedly, this is a bit of an art... Learn how you can harness the power of activist investors to find market-beating turnaround stocks.

Turnaround Letter Stock Pick Named Top Performer of 2017

 

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What Last Year's Top Stock Pickers Are Buying in 2018

 

This Forbes write-up follows up on the recent Top Stock Tips report--naming The Turnaround Letter's Crocs recommendation the top performer of 2017: With 90% gains, CROX beat out 100 other investment ideas included in the report; and the stock continues to have value investing appeal, according to Putnam.

 

George notes, "We see additional upside for the stock in 2018 as management's efforts continue to bear fruit, though the gains will likely be more muted than we saw in 2017."