Turnaround Investing Blog

George Putnam, one of the country's leading turnaround and distressed investing professionals, shares his timely insight on the economy and turnaround investing opportunities.

Turnarounds Outside the United States: Opportunities Are Everywhere

Excerpted from the April 2017 Issue
Investors here in the United States usually have plenty of turnaround opportunities to invest in; yet change is everywhere, and the trends that affect American-based companies can affect companies all over the globe. Just like many companies here, issues surrounding governance, scandals and complacency can create the need for new leadership and strategic re-positioning no matter where a firm is based. Since many of the foreign stock markets have not been as robust as the U.S. market in recent years, the stocks of some of these international turnarounds may be more compelling values right now compared to their U.S. counterparts.
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Distressed Investing: Exploring "The Dark Side"...What To Do When Recovery Unravels

Investing in distressed companies can produce enormous gains: When the recovery is successful, it is not uncommon for the stock to produce multiples of the initial investment and for bonds to generate 50-100% gains along with often-generous interest income. However, not all distressed companies recover, and some decay into bankruptcy. What happens to your investment then?
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What To Do When a Stock Isn't Gaining

...So you recently bought a turnaround stock, and now it is down 10% from your cost. You’re frustrated and worried that you made a mistake. You have the urge to sell now before the price goes down further. What now? First, manage the emotions. Successful investing in turnaround stocks can be a highly emotional experience.
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Distressed Investing: How to Evaluate Potential Pay-Off

At its most basic, evaluating potential pay-off is straightforward--determine what the company could be worth if it recovers, then parse out the value between the debt and equity to estimate the potential upside; but traditional metrics like price/earnings ratios, price/book value ratios and dividend yields generally aren’t useful. Instead, investors should look to Enterprise Value/Ebitda on a post-recovery basis as an effective valuation method.
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Turnaround Letter's "Uncomfortable" Stocks Gain 35%

A lot has happened since our August 2016 “Time to Move Out of the Comfort Zone” article, which focused on companies that were out of favor due to their “high volatility” earnings and share prices. While the market had ignored the six companies we featured, these “uncomfortable” stocks went on to produce some impressive returns, gaining an average of 35.1% as of March 15, 2017.
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Distressed Investing: How to Evaluate Turnaround Prospects

When a company is distressed, its assets are probably worth less than its debts. The best indicator of whether a distressed company will recover is its willingness and speed in dealing directly with that reality. The Turnaround Letter tells investors how to evaluate if a troubled company can execute a successful turnaround.
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Unloved “Trump” Stocks Meet Warren Buffett

Excerpted from the March 2017 Issue
Although the stock market has shown great enthusiasm for many companies that could benefit from regulatory reform and increased government spending (so-called “Trump” stocks), as well as other companies that will be aided by higher and more stable oil prices, it has overlooked several that could be particularly direct beneficiaries.
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Distressed Securities: Digging Deeper

The ultimate goal in evaluating a distressed security is answering this question: is there anything here worth investing in? If not (perhaps the company has so little value that even the most senior traded bond would not have much recovery), then it’s time to move on. But if there is meaningful value, then it’s time to look deeper.
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How to Find Promising Distressed Securities

George Putnam continues his series on investing in distressed securities--this time focusing on how to find publicly traded distressed securities that might be promising investment candidates.
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Top Value Stocks for 2017--Free E-Report

Although George hates to choose favorites among his stock picks, this free e-report details The Turnaround Letter's Top Five Turnaround Stocks for 2017--including a diverse selection with several post-bankruptcy value stocks poised for a rebound. This is the perfect tool to grow your turnaround investing portfolio and lock in stock profit in a potentially turbulent stock market.
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Identify & Profit from Distressed Investing

Free Report: Turnaround Investing Mistakes

Turnaround Investing Blog

Turnaround Investing Blog

Amazon = US GDP 1970

Amazon joined Apple in reaching a $1 trillion market capitalization. $1 trillion is about the same as the total value of New York City property and the total value of loans at JP Morgan, the nation’s largest bank in terms of assets. Jeff Bezos’ $160 billion stake would place him (personally) as the #33 largest company in the S&P 500 in terms of market cap, next to Coca-Cola, Disney and Netflix. We aren’t bold enough to predict whether the shares will continue upwards or if they are in a bubble reaching maximum inflation. Setting aside for a moment their investment prospects, let’s admire the truly remarkable milestone that these two companies have reached. Read More.

EV/EBITDA: What Is It & Why Are We Using It More?

In reading recent editions of The Turnaround Letter, you have probably noticed that we are increasingly using EV/EBITDA as a valuation measure, rather than the better-known price/earnings multiple.  We thought it might be useful to describe this measure and why we like it.

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Turnaround Letter Stock Pick Named Top Performer of 2017

 

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What Last Year's Top Stock Pickers Are Buying in 2018

 

This Forbes write-up follows up on the recent Top Stock Tips report--naming The Turnaround Letter's Crocs recommendation the top performer of 2017: With 90% gains, CROX beat out 100 other investment ideas included in the report; and the stock continues to have value investing appeal, according to Putnam.

 

George notes, "We see additional upside for the stock in 2018 as management's efforts continue to bear fruit, though the gains will likely be more muted than we saw in 2017."