Excerpted from the August 2017 Issue
Even though energy bankruptcies are on the decline, we believe there will continue to be good opportunities for distressed/turnaround investors in that sector for some time.Read More
Steve Cohen, the high profile hedge fund manager, narrowly escaped a prison sentence for trading on insider information. Yet cable billionaire John Malone’s recent insider buying of $16 million of Liberty Global shares, where he is Chairman of the Board and clearly knows a lot of non-public information, is perfectly legal and may be a valuable signal to investors. Can both be possible at the same time? The not-so-simple answer: yes, and no.Read More
Excerpted from the July 2017 Issue
Amazon certainly is impressive; but, realistically, not every industry will be challenged by their profit-draining expansion, nor will every product be sold at large discounts on amazon.com. In this month's Turnaround Letter, we explore a brief selection of companies that would probably be among the last ones to succumb to Amazon Fever. Each has traits that are well outside of the Amazon model, are out of favor and have some interesting turnaround aspects.Read More
As turnaround investors, we approach REITs differently: Rather than focusing on a particular segment of the real estate market, we look for individual REITs that have been neglected by investors but have solid value--that should prevail regardless of the overall market.Read More
MarketWatch's Michael Brush has some advice for investors: "Own out-of-favor stocks held by active funds when they start beating indices again." Pointing out the difficulties currently faced by fund managers, the article cites George's observation that this "dynamic sets up a clever way to place a contrarian bet against the ETF boom." Brush cites three of George's recent stock picks and touts The Turnaround Letter's straightforward investing approach.Read More
Excerpted from the June 2017 Issue
Because of special tax law provisions that exempt the territory’s debt from not only federal taxes but also state taxes in every state, the bonds are widely held by investors across the country. Since the legal action is under a new law that has never been tested, there is tremendous uncertainty about how much creditors will recover and how long the process will take, but there may be opportunities for stock investors to profit from the island’s restructuring as well--perhaps with less downside risk than in many of the bonds. We found four public companies based in Puerto Rico that could benefit from stabilization in the island’s finances as well as three major insurance companies with exposure to Puerto Rican debt.Read More
MoneyLife Radio's Chuck Jaffe recently interviewed The Turnaround Letter's George Putnam to learn more about what he looks for in an ideal turnaround investing opportunity: a solid core business, strong brand recognition and a healthy balance sheet. Putnam also talks specific business sector trends—namely in the troubled retail and energy arenas.Read More
Warrants provide a valuable tool for the savvy investor. When selected and implemented well, they can be a smart addition to a diversified investor’s portfolio.Read More
It’s been a remarkable turn of sentiment for banks since early last year, when we wrote “Everyone Hates the Banks” in our February 2016 issue. At the time, not only was the stock market selling off, but bank stocks were falling even faster. Investors were worried that a weakening economy would delay the Fed’s interest rate hikes and increase loan losses, particularly from the energy sector--both of which would crimp banks’ already tepid earnings outlook. Both the economic upturn that started in mid-2016 and the Presidential election were very favorable to banks. After continued price volatility in the first half of 2016, the KBW Bank Index surged 18% in the months ahead of the election. Following the election, bank stocks surged another 32% to their peak on March 1, 2017, a total gain of over 55% from their early 2016 level.Read More
Excerpted from the May 2017 Issue
Since the start of 2016, over a dozen energy companies have emerged from bankruptcy as public companies. Knowledgeable distressed investors have not been able to soak up this large supply of new post-bankruptcy stocks, leading to their stock prices being even softer than usual. We think many of these post-reorganization oil and gas stocks look like good bargains right now.Read More
Identify & Profit from Distressed Investing
Turnaround Investing Blog
At first glance, the shares have decent appeal as a turnaround investment. Looking deeper, however, the fundamentals are not as strong and stable as they appear. Surplus cash flow is tight, a key driver is weakening, it is increasingly reliant on China and has other nagging issues. We don’t see the new CEO as a catalyst for change. Despite the “first glance appeal”, Tupperware isn’t a good fit as a turnaround stock.
Comparing Stocks Vs. Bonds
While the common stock of a turnaround candidate usually has the greatest upside potential, other classes of securities, such as bonds or preferred stock, may offer attractive profit possibilities with less risk. Many turnaround companies have only one class of securities available to investors but where there are different classes to choose from, it can pay to do a little extra analysis of the various options.
Turnaround Letter Stock Pick Named Top Performer of 2017
What Last Year's Top Stock Pickers Are Buying in 2018
This Forbes write-up follows up on the recent Top Stock Tips report--naming The Turnaround Letter's Crocs recommendation the top performer of 2017: With 90% gains, CROX beat out 100 other investment ideas included in the report; and the stock continues to have value investing appeal, according to Putnam.
George notes, "We see additional upside for the stock in 2018 as management's efforts continue to bear fruit, though the gains will likely be more muted than we saw in 2017."
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