Turnaround Investing Blog

George Putnam, one of the country's leading turnaround and distressed investing professionals, shares his timely insight on the economy and turnaround investing opportunities.

Value Investing & Hot Stocks MoneyLife Interview

MoneyLife Radio's Chuck Jaffe interviews George for insight into the "specific methodology" and "discipline" behind his contrarian investing approach. Putnam discusses the troubled energy and retail sectors--with particular emphasis on what separates Macy's from Sears: M has solid assets, management and cash flow while "we're not quite sure" how SHLD can solve its mounting challenges. George emphasizes the need for investor patience in a turnaround situation, pointing out that a solid turnaround stock prospect "needs new management, assets, improved cash flow or something else that will eventually allow the stock to level off and then rebound."
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Macy’s Q&A: Value Stock Analysis

Macy’s is building an off-price business with Backstage, currently with 45 locations (including 38 inside of existing Macy’s stores and seven free-standing stores). Macy’s does not currently have a competitive edge in off-price retailing; and the key to making this initiative a profitable is execution—their ability to find, buy, display, price and manage this new business. We believe Macy’s is smart to experiment with an off-price concept as it will make them a better overall competitor.
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Chipotle To Get New CEO, Checking a Critical Box For A Turnaround

Chipotle's CEO signals new perspective, no longer “business as usual” and that the board is serious about making improvements. Other boxes already checked include strong cash flow and no debt; but there are also as-yet unchecked boxes: outsider CEO with a credible strategy, attractive valuation. Without attractive valuation, Chipotle may never justify an investment.
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Ford Motor Company vs. Tesla--Seriously?

Tesla is pressed by an age-old nemesis, which makes its financials and operations fragile. Why is Ford even in this discussion? Because Tesla’s nemesis is working to Ford’s advantage...
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Value Investing Analysis: Should Kellogg Shareholders Have Post Holdings Envy?

Post Holdings shares have vastly outperformed Kellogg's and the S&P500 over the past three years. Similarly, Post's crisp revenue and earnings growth has left Kellogg's looking soggy. However, the two companies' prospects may diverge again, but in a different direction. In this note, we analyze Post Holdings' recipe for its strong returns, assess what has held Kellogg's back and explore Kellogg's outlook compared to Post Holdings' to answer the question: Should Kellogg's shareholders have Post Holdings envy?
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The Turnaround Letter’s Value Stock Analysis Makes Headlines

George Putnam does not follow the crowd and is widely-recognized for this contrarian perspective--with media sources and financial publications frequently seeking out his insight, value stock recommendations and unique turnaround investing expertise. Most recently, Forbes, equities and MoneyShow highlighted The Turnaround Letter.
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Turnaround Letter is Bullish on GE Stock

After 16 years of downsizing and asset shuffling, GE now appears to be in disarray--with abrupt changes in the board and at the top levels of management. We believe, however, that the recent drama is the natural byproduct of the speed and boldness of a new CEO who is determined to toss overboard a failed strategy and improve GE’s operating performance.
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Whither Public Equity Markets?

The public equity markets are increasingly having to follow the rules of private equity. For public equity investors, this means the following: Private equity valuation measures like EV/Ebitda will drive public equity valuations. Underperforming companies will come under shareholder pressure more quickly. More quasi-public companies like Kraft Heinz and Advance Auto Parts will emerge. For currently in-favor tech companies like Facebook and Amazon, this could eventually lead to much higher scrutiny. We believe the privatization trend will continue.
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Identify & Profit from Distressed Investing

Free Report: Turnaround Investing Mistakes

Turnaround Investing Blog

Turnaround Investing Blog

Turnaround Investing Philosophy: 32 Years Later, Some Things Never Change

Recently I was asked how my investing perspective changed over the 32 years of publishing The Turnaround Letter. It's a fascinating question because change is constant, and often beneficial (although that's not a given) in the business world. If change is the norm, can investing principles stay constant? I firmly believe that they can. Read More.

EV/EBITDA: What Is It & Why Are We Using It More?

In reading recent editions of The Turnaround Letter, you have probably noticed that we are increasingly using EV/EBITDA as a valuation measure, rather than the better-known price/earnings multiple.  We thought it might be useful to describe this measure and why we like it.

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Turnaround Letter Stock Pick Named Top Performer of 2017

 

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What Last Year's Top Stock Pickers Are Buying in 2018

 

This Forbes write-up follows up on the recent Top Stock Tips report--naming The Turnaround Letter's Crocs recommendation the top performer of 2017: With 90% gains, CROX beat out 100 other investment ideas included in the report; and the stock continues to have value investing appeal, according to Putnam.

 

George notes, "We see additional upside for the stock in 2018 as management's efforts continue to bear fruit, though the gains will likely be more muted than we saw in 2017."