Excerpted from the May 2012 Issue
The Turnaround Letter's recap of historic election cycle market data offers insight on how the fight for the White House might impact Wall Street—and your wallet.
I normally don’t like to discuss particular stocks in the Ask George section, but I’m going to make an exception with Facebook because it is instructive on two fronts: 1) because of all the hype and 2) because it says something about IPO’s in general.Read More
This headline could easily apply to Goldman Sachs today, as recently described by former employee Greg Smith. Actually, it is the title of a book written in 1940 by a former Wall Street employee named Fred Schwed, Jr. The title refers to a story about person admiring the yachts owned by bankers and brokers who asks where the customers' yachts were. Of course, the customers, who had dutifully followed the advice of the bankers and brokers, couldn’t afford yachts. This just goes to show that there is nothing new about the attitude that Goldman Sachs employees were purported (probably accurately) to have about their clients. It was just as true in 1940--and likely has been forever--as it is now.
The stocks of a number of “green” companies have soared and then crashed and burned over the past year or two. This is particularly true in the solar energy field. For example, Energy Conversion Devices saw its stock climb above 80 in mid-2008. But the company’s results never justified the lofty valuation, and it ended up filing for bankruptcy on February 14 of this year. The stock has fallen to 0.16, and it is probably overpriced even at that level.Read More
We’re not at all sure that either Greece’s or Europe’s troubles are truly behind them. But that said, we also believe that it makes sense to have some European exposure in your portfolio. The advice we gave in the November 2011 issue still holds...Read More
The recent unfortunate accident involving the Costa Concordia cruise ship, which is owned by a subsidiary of Carnival Corp., raises an important investing question: Should you bail out of a stock if the company is affected by a serious negative event? Unless the event could be part of a series or trend, the answer is usually “no,” for two reasons.
The structural factors relating to bankruptcy securities can be both legal and psychological. As an example of a legal factor, many institutional investors (such as insurance companies or mutual funds) are not allowed, either by law or by their charter, to hold bonds that have defaulted and no longer pay interest.Read More
There are certainly good opportunities in foreign turnarounds, but also very significant risks as well. The market inefficiencies that provide unusually high return potential for turnarounds here in the U.S. are probably even greater in foreign markets. However, there may be special, local features that affect foreign companies that we may not understand when we view them from afar.Read More
I never recommend getting out of the stock market entirely--or even making major changes to your allocation to stocks. The stock market is so unpredictable that if you bail out, the risk is very high that you will miss a significant upturn.Read More
The argument in favor of buying Kodak stock goes something like this: Now that Kodak has filed for bankruptcy, its stock trades for about 30 cents; but since it traded for more than $30 just a few years ago, doesn’t that mean it has to be cheap? Unfortunately, there are two major fallacies with this argument.
Identify & Profit from Distressed Investing
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Harnessing Activists to Help Find Turnaround Stocks
Activist investors often produce attractive returns for their clients; and you can still use their influence to help your position as a turnaround investor in two ways: Buy a position in a stock with the expectation that an activist will soon follow or buy after an activist takes a stake.
While one of the many dozens of activist funds might find their way to selecting your particular stock, this approach is likely to be frustrating and unrewarding. A better approach is to buy after the activist makes their move. Once an activist takes a stake in a company, how do you evaluate whether it is worthwhile to follow on? Admittedly, this is a bit of an art... Learn how you can harness the power of activist investors to find market-beating turnaround stocks.
Turnaround Letter Stock Pick Named Top Performer of 2017
What Last Year's Top Stock Pickers Are Buying in 2018
This Forbes write-up follows up on the recent Top Stock Tips report--naming The Turnaround Letter's Crocs recommendation the top performer of 2017: With 90% gains, CROX beat out 100 other investment ideas included in the report; and the stock continues to have value investing appeal, according to Putnam.
George notes, "We see additional upside for the stock in 2018 as management's efforts continue to bear fruit, though the gains will likely be more muted than we saw in 2017."
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