Tax Loss Selling/Year-End Bounce

ARTICLES

How will this Presidential election impact your wallet?

Whither this Election Year Market?

May 01, 2012
The Turnaround Letter analyzes historic election cycle market data and offers its unique insight on the coming months. Read “Whither this Election Year Market” to see how the Obama-Romney battle could impact Wall Street—and your wallet.
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Year-End Bounce Candidates: When the Calendar Makes Winners Out of Losers

December 01, 2011
Most of the time, we focus on fundamental business factors that affect the values of particular stocks. But at this time of the year, we often see artificial selling pressures that may present buying opportunities almost regardless of stock fundamentals or market conditions.
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Year-End Bounce Candidates: Gain From Artificial Selling Pressure

December 01, 2010
At this time of the year, we often see artificial selling pressures that may present buying opportunities almost regardless of stock fundamentals or market conditions. These selling pressures come from two sources… [Identifying ten year-end turnaround, or “bounce”, opportunities across the market]
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Year-End Bounce Candidates: Looking For Stocks With Staying Power

December 01, 2008
Every year around this time, we look for stocks that may be beaten down by artificial year-end selling pressure and are therefore likely to rebound in the New Year. Typically, this year-end selling pressure comes from two sources: tax-loss selling and portfolio window dressing. [Featuring nine opportune stocks that dropped 55% or more during 2008 but have debt-to-equity ratios below 0.1…]
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Special Year-End 2008 Opportunity: Buy What The Hedge Funds Are Forced To Sell

December 01, 2008
This year we may be seeing an unusual year-end buying opportunity caused by hedge funds that have been forced to sell many of their holdings. The hedge funds have been forced to sell for two reasons. [Presenting eleven profitable stocks from the hedge fund melting pot]
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When The Tax Code Is Actually Helpful: Year-End Buying Opportunities

December 01, 2006
Many investors, when they are finished polishing off their Thanksgiving leftovers, turn their thoughts to the tax code. At least for turnaround investors, that's not as bad as it sounds because it can lead to some interesting buying opportunities.
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Good Year-End Opportunities Despite Flat Stock Market?

December 01, 2005
Every year around this time, at least two things always happen: 1) investors start praying for a "Santa Claus rally;" and 2) we go looking for stocks that have been artificially beaten down by year-end selling. We don't know whether to believe in Santa Claus rallies (or Santa himself, for that matter), but we do believe that artificial selling pressure brought about by the vagaries of the calendar provide investment opportunities.
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The One Kind Of Market Timing That We Approve Of

December 01, 2004
As we put pen to paper - or fingers to keyboard - for the final issue of 2004, we can't help but notice how many pundits have once again been so fooled by the stock market. Terrorist threats, election uncertainty and rising energy prices had many on the run just a few short weeks ago.
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When The Calendar Is Your Friend

December 01, 2003
Most of the time, we focus on fundamental factors that affect the values of particular stocks. But at this time of the year, we often see artificial selling pressures that may present buying opportunities almost regardless of stock fundamentals or market conditions.
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Two Kinds Of Bounce Candidates

November 01, 2002
When the broad market averages were hitting to new lows in October, investors' concerns were raised by a breakdown in leading cyclical stocks. Analysts provided fodder for increased pessimism by speaking of a confirmed bear market.
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Turnaround Tips

TLCorner

Where Are the Customers' Yachts?

This headline could easily apply to Goldman Sachs today, as recently described by former employee Greg Smith. Actually, it is the title of a book written in 1940 by a former Wall Street employee named Fred Schwed, Jr. The title refers to a story about person admiring the yachts owned by bankers and brokers who asks where the customers' yachts were. Of course, the customers, who had dutifully followed the advice of the bankers and brokers, couldn’t afford yachts. This just goes to show that there is nothing new about the attitude that Goldman Sachs employees were purported (probably accurately) to have about their clients. It was just as true in 1940--and likely has been forever--as it is now.

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Beware of Trendy Turnaround Candidates - Even Green Ones

The stocks of a number of “green” companies have soared and then crashed and burned over the past year or two. This is particularly true in the solar energy field. For example, Energy Conversion Devices saw its stock climb above 80 in mid-2008. But the company’s results never justified the lofty valuation, and it ended up filing for bankruptcy on February 14 of this year. The stock has fallen to 0.16, and it is probably overpriced even at that level. Read More.

Don't Chase the Headlines

The recent unfortunate accident involving the Costa Concordia cruise ship, which is owned by a subsidiary of Carnival Corp., raises an important investing question: Should you bail out of a stock if the company is affected by a serious negative event? Unless the event could be part of a series or trend, the answer is usually “no,” for two reasons.

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What did The Turnaround Letter see that others did not?

Questions & Tips

AskGeorge

Now that Greece's latest bailout is complete, is it safe to buy European stocks again?

We’re not at all sure that either Greece’s or Europe’s troubles are truly behind them.  But that said, we also believe that it makes sense to have some European exposure in your portfolio.  The advice we gave in the November 2011 issue still holds...

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With so much turmoil and uncertainty in the U.S. economy, and even more fear of collapse overseas, do you ever recommend just getting out of the stock market all together and hunkering down with something safer like bonds?

I never recommend getting out of the stock market entirely--or even making major changes to your allocation to stocks. The stock market is so unpredictable that if you bail out, the risk is very high that you will miss a significant upturn. Moreover, even if you make the right call to get out of the market, you then have to muster the courage to get back in. 

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What is your opinion on investing in foreign turnaround companies?

There are certainly good opportunities in foreign turnarounds, but also very significant risks as well. The market inefficiencies that provide unusually high return potential for turnarounds here in the U.S. are probably even greater in foreign markets. However, there may be special, local features that affect foreign companies that we may not understand when we view them from afar. 

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Bankruptcy Investing

George reflects on bankruptcy investing activity & trends seen in 2010. Read more.

Will the Euro survive?

With the resurgence of unrest in Europe, we are bringing back the poll question we first did last October: Do you think the Euro will survive as the common currency in Europe?
See Poll Results Poll Archive