High Yield Bonds

ARTICLES

High Yield Bonds: Be Cautious

February 01, 2012
In “High Yield Bonds: Be Cautious,” The Turnaround Letter warns distressed debt investors to be wary investing additional funds into high yield bonds, aka “junk” bonds, in the current economic climate. Citing historic financial market trends, George Putnam charts 10 years of junk bond issuance and default/bankruptcy rates to solidify this warning.
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Looking Backward and Forward

December 30, 2011
For most investors, 2011 felt like a very tough year. However, your actual performance depended very much on what type of stocks you owned.
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High Yield Bonds: Time For Caution

February 01, 2011
From time to time we comment on high yield bonds (sometimes called “junk bonds”) because they are akin to turnaround stocks in several ways. Also, many companies that issue high yield debt are in the process of turning around, or at least trying to… [Record levels of high yield bond issuance combined with lower quality issues currently make us cautious of these types of securities.]
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High Yield Bonds: Proceed With Caution

February 01, 2010
Each year around this time we like to say a few words about the high yield bond market. While they are called "bonds," high yield securities are in many ways closer to stocks - both in their return characteristics and their risk characteristics - than to more traditional bonds. Also, many high yield issuers are in some stage of a turnaround (or attempted turnaround).
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High Yield Bonds: Poised For A Good Year?

February 01, 2009
Stocks are not the only asset class that could have significant rebound in the not-too-distant future. High Yield bonds had by far their worst year in 2008. Might now be a good time to get involved and ride the rebound of the high yield bond market? [Listing nine funds available for a diversified entry into high yield bonds…]
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High Yield Spreads As An Indicator?

October 01, 2008
One of the numbers we watch occasionally is the “spread” of high yield bonds over treasury bonds. How has this spread varied historically and what might this mean for our expectations of the coming months?
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High Yield Bond Issuance Still Strong: Time For Caution?

February 01, 2008
In spite of all the headlines about a credit crunch, high yield bond issuance remained at a relatively high level in 2007 - although the bulk of the issuance took place in the first half of the year. Last year about $135 billion of new high yield bonds were issued. This is down from the record level of $155 billion the year before, but still very substantial by historical standards.
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New Record For High Yield Bonds: Can Next Bankruptcy Wave Be Far Off?

February 01, 2007
We've been saying for some time now that we expect the number of big bankruptcies to pick up soon. The graph below shows why we feel that way.
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High Yield Bond Issuance Still Strong: Fuel For New Bankruptcy Wave?

February 01, 2006
Wall Street continued to crank out new high yield bond issues in 2005, albeit at a slightly slower pace than in 2004. Last year just about $100 billion of new high yield bonds were issued, down from the record level of $136 billion the year before.
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Record High Yield Bond Issuance: More Bankruptcies Coming?

February 01, 2005
Last year was a record year for issuing high yield bonds. More than $136 billion of new high yield bonds were issued in 2004, topping the previous record of $131 billion in 1998.
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Turnaround Tips

TLCorner

Where Are the Customers' Yachts?

This headline could easily apply to Goldman Sachs today, as recently described by former employee Greg Smith. Actually, it is the title of a book written in 1940 by a former Wall Street employee named Fred Schwed, Jr. The title refers to a story about person admiring the yachts owned by bankers and brokers who asks where the customers' yachts were. Of course, the customers, who had dutifully followed the advice of the bankers and brokers, couldn’t afford yachts. This just goes to show that there is nothing new about the attitude that Goldman Sachs employees were purported (probably accurately) to have about their clients. It was just as true in 1940--and likely has been forever--as it is now.

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Beware of Trendy Turnaround Candidates - Even Green Ones

The stocks of a number of “green” companies have soared and then crashed and burned over the past year or two. This is particularly true in the solar energy field. For example, Energy Conversion Devices saw its stock climb above 80 in mid-2008. But the company’s results never justified the lofty valuation, and it ended up filing for bankruptcy on February 14 of this year. The stock has fallen to 0.16, and it is probably overpriced even at that level. Read More.

Don't Chase the Headlines

The recent unfortunate accident involving the Costa Concordia cruise ship, which is owned by a subsidiary of Carnival Corp., raises an important investing question: Should you bail out of a stock if the company is affected by a serious negative event? Unless the event could be part of a series or trend, the answer is usually “no,” for two reasons.

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What did The Turnaround Letter see that others did not?

Questions & Tips

AskGeorge

Now that Greece's latest bailout is complete, is it safe to buy European stocks again?

We’re not at all sure that either Greece’s or Europe’s troubles are truly behind them.  But that said, we also believe that it makes sense to have some European exposure in your portfolio.  The advice we gave in the November 2011 issue still holds...

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With so much turmoil and uncertainty in the U.S. economy, and even more fear of collapse overseas, do you ever recommend just getting out of the stock market all together and hunkering down with something safer like bonds?

I never recommend getting out of the stock market entirely--or even making major changes to your allocation to stocks. The stock market is so unpredictable that if you bail out, the risk is very high that you will miss a significant upturn. Moreover, even if you make the right call to get out of the market, you then have to muster the courage to get back in. 

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What is your opinion on investing in foreign turnaround companies?

There are certainly good opportunities in foreign turnarounds, but also very significant risks as well. The market inefficiencies that provide unusually high return potential for turnarounds here in the U.S. are probably even greater in foreign markets. However, there may be special, local features that affect foreign companies that we may not understand when we view them from afar. 

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Bankruptcy Investing

George reflects on bankruptcy investing activity & trends seen in 2010. Read more.

Will the Euro survive?

With the resurgence of unrest in Europe, we are bringing back the poll question we first did last October: Do you think the Euro will survive as the common currency in Europe?
See Poll Results Poll Archive