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George Putnam, one of the country's leading turnaround and distressed investing professionals, shares his timely insight on the economy and turnaround investing opportunities.

Tax Loss Selling/Year-End Bounce

Year-End Bounce Candidates: Losers Become Winners (At Least For A While)

Excerpted from December 2012 Issue

December 11, 2012

Most of the time, our investment newsletter advises taking a long-term view and focusing on stocks where the underlying business fundamentals are turning around. However, around this time of year it is worth considering a shorter-term strategy based more on the quirks of the calendar--and the tax law--than on business fundamentals.

Every year around this time we see certain stocks get pushed down by artificial selling pressure. That pressure is removed after year-end, often causing those stocks to pop up nicely. The artificial selling pressure comes from two sources: tax-loss selling and portfolio window dressing.

Late in the calendar many investors begin thinking about their tax bill. This causes them to sell losing stock positions to realize capital losses that can be used to offset other gains that they may have. Around the same time, many professional portfolio managers begin worrying about their year-end reports to clients. They would rather not have their losing stocks show up in those annual reports, and so they sell the offending positions to get them out of the portfolio before it is memorialized at the end of the year.

The new year brings a clean slate with respect to both tax and reporting issues. When the artificial selling pressure stops, many of the previous year’s dogs jump up and suddenly become investor darlings--at least for a while. Ultimately, longer-term fundamentals will drive the prices of these stocks, but you can often make good money from this year-end bounce pattern.

For example, a year ago the ten year-end bounce candidates that we identified in the December 2011 issue significantly outperformed the S&P 500 through January. The outperformance narrowed, but was still meaningful, through the end of March. But by November the poor fundamental results from several companies on the list had dragged the group’s performance below the S&P’s. This is similar to the strong short-term performance (and weaker long-term performance) that we saw from the year-end bounce candidates that we identified in December 2010.

 Given the good performance of our year-end bounce stocks for the last two years, this year we are following the same stock-picking formula. The turnaround investing bounce candidates detailed in our full December 2012 article represent the worst performers in the S&P 500 over the first 11 months of 2012. Subscribe now (or log in if already a subscriber) to find out which 12 stocks you should consider adding to your portfolio right now for potential year-end bounce stock profit.

 

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George Putnam's Favorite Stocks for 2016

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2015 Bankruptcy Recap: 46% Increase Fueled by Oil & Gas/Mining Industry--Further Uptick Predicted

Looking back at 2015, research reveals a 14% decline in overall business bankruptcies but a 46% uptick in public company Chapter 11 filings—with a striking 51% of those filings coming from the battered Oil & Gas/Mining sectors. Economic indicators point to further increases in corporate bankruptcy, in general, and Energy-related filings, in particular. Just a few days into 2016, this viewpoint has already been validated by Arch Coal's long-awaited $8 billion Chapter 11 filing—and continuing oil price plummets severe enough that OPEC will likely convene an emergency meeting to address "shattered" economies. Read More.

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Spotlight: Junk Bond Market

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MarketWatch's Mark Hulbert recently tapped George's distressed investing expertise to determine the fate of the junk-bond market and what its nearly three-year decline likely means for your portfolio.

 

Hulbert writes, "What’s really going on? For insight, I turned to George Putnam, an expert in distressed-company investing. His Turnaround Letter advisory service has handily beaten the stock market over the past 15 years, according to the Hulbert Financial Digest’s tracking, by an impressive margin of 7.3 percentage points a year on an annualized basis."

 

Commenting on the rapid growth of high-yield exchange traded funds (ETF's), Putnam notes, "They have become the investment vehicle of choice for short-term investors….Those investors tend to be trend followers and, therefore, are just the opposite of being contrarian."

 

Read the full MarketWatch junk-bond article to find out what George thinks these recent indicators likely mean for future distressed investing profit.