MoreThe lead article in the August issue examines the lessons we have learned over our 25 years of writing about turnaround investing. While many of the lessons are focused on turnarounds or bankruptcies, there are four principles that we believe are essential to successful investing--of any style.
Turnaround Tips
TLCorner
Where Are the Customers' Yachts?
This headline could easily apply to Goldman Sachs today, as recently described by former employee Greg Smith. Actually, it is the title of a book written in 1940 by a former Wall Street employee named Fred Schwed, Jr. The title refers to a story about person admiring the yachts owned by bankers and brokers who asks where the customers' yachts were. Of course, the customers, who had dutifully followed the advice of the bankers and brokers, couldn’t afford yachts. This just goes to show that there is nothing new about the attitude that Goldman Sachs employees were purported (probably accurately) to have about their clients. It was just as true in 1940--and likely has been forever--as it is now.
Read More.Beware of Trendy Turnaround Candidates - Even Green Ones
The stocks of a number of “green” companies have soared and then crashed and burned over the past year or two. This is particularly true in the solar energy field. For example, Energy Conversion Devices saw its stock climb above 80 in mid-2008. But the company’s results never justified the lofty valuation, and it ended up filing for bankruptcy on February 14 of this year. The stock has fallen to 0.16, and it is probably overpriced even at that level.
Read More.
Don't Chase the Headlines
The recent unfortunate accident involving the Costa Concordia cruise ship, which is owned by a subsidiary of Carnival Corp., raises an important investing question: Should you bail out of a stock if the company is affected by a serious negative event? Unless the event could be part of a series or trend, the answer is usually “no,” for two reasons.
Read More.What did The Turnaround Letter see that others did not?
Questions & Tips
AskGeorge
Now that Greece's latest bailout is complete, is it safe to buy European stocks again?
We’re not at all sure that either Greece’s or Europe’s troubles are truly behind them. But that said, we also believe that it makes sense to have some European exposure in your portfolio. The advice we gave in the November 2011 issue still holds...
Read More.With so much turmoil and uncertainty in the U.S. economy, and even more fear of collapse overseas, do you ever recommend just getting out of the stock market all together and hunkering down with something safer like bonds?
I never recommend getting out of the stock market entirely--or even making major changes to your allocation to stocks. The stock market is so unpredictable that if you bail out, the risk is very high that you will miss a significant upturn. Moreover, even if you make the right call to get out of the market, you then have to muster the courage to get back in.
Read More.What is your opinion on investing in foreign turnaround companies?
There are certainly good opportunities in foreign turnarounds, but also very significant risks as well. The market inefficiencies that provide unusually high return potential for turnarounds here in the U.S. are probably even greater in foreign markets. However, there may be special, local features that affect foreign companies that we may not understand when we view them from afar.
Read More.Bankruptcy Investing
George reflects on bankruptcy investing activity & trends seen in 2010. Read more.