It can be tempting to look at a depressed stock and think, “it used to trade at 40 and now it’s at 8 – therefore it must be a bargain.” Unfortunately, the fact that a stock once traded at a higher price does not guarantee that it will ever get back there. One big reason that a stock trades so much lower than before: its earnings potential or assets have deteriorated. Without some fundamental improvement, the share price will continue to lag, or worse.Read More
One common stock market pitfall can be mistaking a low-priced stock for being cheap. Many stocks trade at low prices, say under $5 per share; but this is no indication of real value--or whether it’s a bargain. What really matters is what shares are worth.Read More
Excerpted from the August 2016 Issue
There doesn’t seem to be much incentive to go public these days. This trend seems likely to continue. What is less clear is the impact: Do valuations increase for the remaining public companies as the supply diminishes? Will individual investors have less access to the best new companies? What will happen when interest rates rise and close off the spigot of cheap money driving private deals?Read More
Most investors think of bankruptcy as bad. As a result, they tend to avoid the stocks of companies that have been through a U.S. Bankruptcy Court restructuring, but Chapter 11 can be very beneficial to a company and its post-bankruptcy stock.Read More
Negative media headlines can be a great source of turnaround ideas. Stories about struggling companies, management turmoil, failed strategies, large financial losses, industrial accidents, lawsuits and the like can drive a stock to well-below reasonable levels and may provide a buying opportunity. Like all Wall Street axioms, however, “buy on bad news” must be accompanied by careful analysis to evaluate the potential for turnaround success.Read More
The stronger a company’s cash flows are relative to its obligations, the greater its chances for recovery. If cash flows exceed its obligations, the company has resources and time. If, however, cash flows barely match or fall short of its obligations, the company fights not only its operational challenges, but also fights the clock.Read More
Excerpted from the July 2016 Issue
So, where do we go from here? With the S&P 500 Index having already exceeded the 3% return we anticipated in our January issue, we have modest expectations for the rest of the year. Valuations for large-cap stocks remain high, and earnings growth looks tepid. Stocks with “low volatility” and stable earnings appear particularly expensive to us. Smaller-cap stocks, value stocks and those with unique situations continue to look much more appealing. In general, we expect the U.S. economy to...Read More
It is essential for a turnaround company to maintain a steady level of sales to provide the cash flow and time span needed to carry out its recovery plan: If revenues remain stable, there is a high probability that the turnaround will eventually succeed. Read More
The best environment for turnaround stocks is when the economy is just beginning to improve after a slowdown. As broad economic conditions improve, the weakness of turnaround companies can become their strength as they benefit much more than healthier companies. Their sharper recovery can lead to outsized share price gains relative to other stocks.Read More
Selecting a turnaround stock with solid profit potential can almost be considered an art form in itself. As noted in our other distressed investing blog entries there are many factors to evaluate to determine the real possibilities in any turnaround situation, and here is one more: Look for solid core businesses.Read More
Learn George Putnam's Turnaround Secrets
Turnaround Investing Blog
It can be tempting to look at a depressed stock and think, “it used to trade at 40 and now it’s at 8 – therefore it must be a bargain.” Unfortunately, the fact that a stock once traded at a higher price does not guarantee that it will ever get back there. One big reason that a stock trades so much lower than before: its earnings potential or assets have deteriorated. Without some fundamental improvement, the share price will continue to lag, or worse.
Market-Beating Profit: The 200+ Club
Turnaround stocks present a unique opportunity for savvy investors to buy in at bargain prices. Take a look at this list of just a few of our purchase recommendations that have realized a return rate of 200% or better:
* Bristow remains an our active purchase recommendation, currently as a "Hold," and 1,928% stock profit is as of 8/11/16.
Retail Turnaround Trio
MoneyShow.com interviewed George to learn more about his favorite value stock picks for today's market. In "Retail Turnaround Trio," Steve Halpern highlights three of The Turnaround Letter's recently-profiled retailers: JWN, TIF and SPLS.
Putnam notes, "Well the retailing sector is undergoing very fundamental change as people move away from the bricks and mortar mall doors to buying more and more online but that's not going to wipe out all of the old-fashioned retailers. Starting the middle of 2015, investors just moved away from retailers en masse and a number of them are trading at about half the level they were a year ago. We thought some of the higher quality names that definitely will be survivors looked interesting."
Learn more about these three retail stocks poised for a turnaround.
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