Ask George

George Putnam, one of the country's leading turnaround and distressed investing professionals, answers your investing questions. This is your chance to find out everything you wanted to know--but were afraid to ask--about turnaround investing.

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Does the poor performance of the stock market in May indicate that the U.S. is headed for a new recession?

June 15, 2012

This question comes up frequently when the market takes a dip. While it is true that the stock market does sometimes anticipate a recession, the market is far from an accurate economic indicator. As the Nobel prizewinning economist Paul Samuelson once said, “The stock market has predicted nine of the last five recessions.” In fact, in the last few days as I was preparing to write this, the market has already staged a sharp turnaround. Bottom line: don’t try to time the market!

(Question submitted by Richard M.)

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What did The Turnaround Letter see that others did not?

Questions & Tips

AskGeorge

Why are you still recommending MGIC?

I don’t normally comment on individual stocks in this particular blog, but the MGIC situation represents a basic investment principle that is worthy of discussion here.

Read More.

How important are Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratios in evaluating turnaround stocks?

Price-to-Earnings ratios are probably the most widely used tool for comparing the relative values of different stocks.

Read More.

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"For 21 years, George Putnam III has trained his sights on one of the more obscure areas of investing: turnaround situations and bankruptcies. By focusing on out-of-favor companies, his flagship publication, The Turnaround Letter, has achieved enormous success for its subscribers."